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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.2% | -5.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 56.9% | +4.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 38.8% | -6.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.8% | -17.5 |
| Fire Exia | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Water Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |